Gold prices (XAU/USD) advanced for the third consecutive day on Thursday, climbing to an all-time high above $2,980 per ounce, paving the way for a potential test of the psychological $3,000 mark.
The precious metal’s continued rally entered its second consecutive week, with gold posting gains in the first three months of the new year. Looking at the bigger picture, the yellow metal has only posted monthly losses four times since 2024.
Tariff Chaos and Low Inflation Boost Gold
Since President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, US trade policy has taken center stage. However, the lack of a clear direction—highlighted by new tariff announcements followed by surprise reversals—has increased uncertainty among market participants, who view the administration’s stance on trade as uncertain.
These ongoing shifts in the tariff narrative have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, giving gold an additional boost and bringing the $3,000 price barrier within reach.
At the same time, US inflation indicators—including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)—fell slightly in February, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may resume its easing cycle in the near future. On the other hand, declining inflation also points to a slowdown in the economy, heightening concerns about a possible recession in light of the recent weakness in US fundamentals.
Peace Talks: Potential Headwinds?
Currently, negotiations aimed at ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are ongoing, but no tangible results have emerged. If a ceasefire scenario materializes, gold could face a pullback as the removal of geopolitical risks could lead to a return to riskier assets.
Short-Term Technical Outlook for Gold
The next major target for gold on the upside is the all-time high of $2,983 reached on March 13. If these levels are breached, Fibonacci projections point to potential targets at $3,254, $3,396, and $3,600.
On the downside, the first line of defense is the weekly low at $2,832 (February 28), followed by the 55-day and 100-day simple moving averages at $2,805 and $2,741, respectively. From here, the 200-day simple moving average appears at $2,610, which precedes the November low of $2,536 (November 14).
While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 67, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 25 indicates relatively strong trend strength.
بابلو بيوفانو
FXStreet
